"We haven’t seen a significant counterfactual contribution from AI to net global cybersecurity damages since 2022 / Chat...

"We haven’t seen a significant counterfactual contribution from AI to net global cybersecurity damages since 2022 / ChatGPT. But that doesn’t mean AI won’t transform cybercrime and cyber conflict and eventually lead to catastrophic damages. The apocalypse, I think, will be slow-moving.I read a book about “cryptoviruses” in 2008, but it took 5-8 years for ransomware to become a huge deal. And ransomware eventually did hundreds of billions in damages, thanks to geopolitical conditions that let gangs sufficiently avoid law enforcement, a global political economy that pushed young people in the former USSR toward crime over formal software jobs, the rise of crypto payment rails, and the like. Likewise, “Cyber Pearl Harbor” was popularized in 2012, but it wasn’t until 2017 (NotPetya, Russia against Ukraine) that we saw a nation-state attack that significantly disrupted another national economy.It’s our job, those of us in AI safety, AI security, and security, to anticipate bad cases, work o...